February 18, 2008

US Heading 4 a Recession?

For the past couple of weeks the word 'recession' is the most widely used word amongst the desis out here which includes poor souls like me!!I have been reading a lot on recession and related matters as I thought it would be better I face the consequences in the true spirit.Personaly I got the feel of it after our career fairs where the recruiters themselves told the international students about their difficulty in sponsoring our Visa with the recession coming up.Its a huge blow to people like me as I'll be graduating in the peak of recession.
The chances of the US avoiding a recession appear to be growing dimmer by the day, and any contraction in the economy will likely last longer and be more severe than other downturns in the past 20 years.
As I am specializing in construction management I tried to narrow down my readings to the construction and related field.It is the biggest housing slump in the last four or five decades: every housing indicator is in free fall, including now housing prices.Recent reports have shown the housing market slump and rising defaults in the mortgage market are now taking their toll on job growth and on the manufacturing and services sector.
This december when I was in Las Vegas my sister who works with a real estate company was telling me that one of the worst effected areas was Las Vegas.Gaming revenues suffered their steepest-ever drop — a scare that led casinos to lower room rates to drum up business. New casinos such as the Hard Rock struggled with financing, and three other casinos filed for bankruptcy.Begged for donations to stay afloat, the unemployment rate rose, the governor laid off state workers and housing construction stalled.

May be all this is a hoax.May be not!But there are some indicators which are flashing red.Unemployment is up, consumer spending is down, the housing market has slipped into recession, and the stock market is lurching back and forth like an overloaded washing machine. All of this could have been foreseen by anyone with minimal critical thinking skills and a healthy dose of skepticism of government.

Indian IT Industry seems to be all set to receive the tornado by laying off and cutting down salaries.May be Indian companies are smarter by taking the prevention pill so early.
Lets watch where this fall of the great economy is gonna take us all.May be its too early to pack my bags back home,Its quite ironic ,but still I would end this post with a malayalam cliche 'Papi chennadam pathalam'

11 comments:

Ajith said...

The value of education would stay with you regardless of the economy upturn / downturn.. So, I'd say, learn regardless of that ..
Indian IT industry has already started layoffs & cost-cuttings.. And most of us are sure not to get any hikes in coming months.

CestLaVie said...

Bhadra,you'v made a pretty critical assessment.And nice presentation too. Kudos! housing rates are plumetting down the abyss, oil prices are skyrocketting, illegal immigration at its peak,consumer spending(and inflation) pretty down, dollar prices going haywire, stock markets as frenzied as possible, unemployement (for certain sectors) high etcetera. But, there are measures which can erase all the anxieties. There is still a chance of sliding by the dotted edge to safety. Papi chenna idam pathalam aakanamennilla. Redemption ennoru possibility still holds :)

Bhadra Nair said...

@cestlavie..Thanks..alla ee cestlavie aara?Peronnum ille?

Anand said...

cestlavie alla... wrong. est la vie aanu.... meaning that;s life. athu potte.

one word of unsolicited comment/advise to bhadra (from an economist): pedikkenda, this is not the end of the world. US economy is going thro a difficult time. The biggest fear is something called as stagflation - a deadly combo of recession (negative growth) with inflation. This is something all economists dread.

Yet, economists find a silver lining in every doom. The good side of the story is that this will weed out the dead matter in the economy (as painful as it sounds). It will however in the medium term revitalize the economy. What comes out will be bigger and better!

You might want to consider starting a PhD program while you look for a job - of course unsolicited advise :) sorry. increasing your social and human capital is always a good idea....

Bhadra Nair said...

@Anand the second para was comforting..Thanks
But for the advice in the last para:If u are ready to sponser my fees with the dollars u earn from World Bank..I have no probs..[:P]
Anyways its indeed a honour that economists are visiting my blog..:) I hope Anand is ur real name..

C'est la vie said...

C'est la vie!
as far as I know.. the expression 'est la vie' might be translated as 'is the life'

"That's life", in my humble opinion is CLV ( C'est la vie). Anand, if you can prove otherwise, I would be glad to learn.

The imminent(lucky if not)recession might weed out the dead. Only question being, who is going to be THE DEAD.

Anand said...

oui CLV.... Mon erreur. Je suis désolé

je parle franciase un petit peu....

the "dead" means dead cells.... akin to body cells dying and new ones replacing them :) does that also sound heartless ? economists are warm blooded and full of heart people.... as much as the impression is otherwise... :)

bhadra, PhD atra mosham degree alla. you're sure to find graduate assistance. just now i was reading that brown univ intends to waive of fees for all students who cannot "afford" to pay.

Anand said...

and yea bhadree, ente peru anand thanne... why would you think otherwise? economists play with data not names.

Bhadra Nair said...

@Anand.Well I came here with a hope that I would find some assistance and ended up paying the out sate fees all the senesters.You can read my post 'Tribute to CEM Batch 2007'.
Who said PHd is a mosham degree??
Well unfortunatly my career interst is a bit different.I plan to take a MBA as soon as I gain some work exp..
Out of curiosity..are u somebody I know??Do work with World Bank like ur IP Address shows??[:P]

@cestlavis alias Thomas
enthokkeyo debates ente blogil nadakunnu...

Anonymous said...

i doubt you know me.... i accidentally ended up at your blogsite... enganeyennariyilla, endinennariyilla, eppozhennariyilla.....

don't worry, ellam nallathinu. you'll find a good job and yes, an MBA admission at nothing less than Wharton, Stanford or Harvard... pore?

Bhadra Nair said...

Oh so kool..The Anonymous well wisher!!!Anyways thanks for the wishes. really hope I make it to Stanford Mr World Bank..
@enganeyennariyilla enthinennariyilla......
njan ormipikkam..Orkut Profile..
ente great grandfather,grandfather,father ellam vakeel marayirunnu mashe...[:)]